A new report ($) from Juniper Research projects that agentic commerce could reach $1.5 trillion in global transaction value by 2030, as AI-driven purchasing systems move beyond early pilots.
The study finds that adoption is expected to accelerate in 2025 and 2026, as improvements in AI-driven product discovery and agentic capabilities expand the role of automated buying systems. Trust, however, continues to be the primary constraint on broader rollout, the report says.
According to the U.K.-based consultancy, agentic commerce is likely to develop as an additional channel rather than replacing traditional e-commerce flows in the near term. Concerns around reliability, transparency and control are expected to slow enterprise adoption, particularly in regulated or high-value transactions.
The report also highlights the role of payments infrastructure providers in enabling agentic transactions. Juniper ranked Mastercard, Visa and Stripe as the leading vendors in the space, based on their support for emerging agentic commerce protocols and capabilities.
“Agentic commerce is all about early mover advantage, and indeed, the top players have moved quickly to build the rails needed for agentic commerce payments. Early participation in frameworks has been highly beneficial, and as agentic commerce broadens, these frameworks and protocols will be vital for payment provider success,” said Nick Maynard, vice president of Fintech Market Research at Juniper Research.
The study notes that fragmentation across global payment methods remains a structural challenge. Providers must integrate multiple local payment options while supporting new agent-driven transaction flows, creating both complexity and opportunity as the market develops.