While automation technology providers have tried to stress that employees will not be displaced by their products, workers remain concerned they could be automated out of their jobs. A new report from McKinsey Global Institute does nothing to allay those fears, predicting around 11 million American workers, representing 7 percent of current employees, may need to change occupations by 2035 as a result of AI-driven automation.
That doesn’t mean, however, there will be 11 million fewer jobs. AI-related economic expansion could generate demand for more than 40 million positions during the same period, the report said. McKinsey estimates that approximately 25 million workers affected by automation will remain in their occupations as industry growth offsets displacement.
“The next decade’s challenge is mobility, not scarcity,” the report states.
According to McKinsey, accommodating the projected workforce transition would require approximately 770,000 workers to change occupational groups annually, roughly 3.6 times the historical average.
Office and administrative support workers, retail and sales professionals, and those in transportation and logistics will be affected the most. Lower-wage workers are 7.6 times more likely than higher-wage workers to require an occupational change.
While jobs may be available, it remains unclear if displaced workers will be able to fill them. McKinsey estimates that nearly half of affected workers face substantial skills gaps, credential requirements or other barriers to transitioning into new occupations.
