Traditional seat-based business models in the enterprise software industry are under attack by AI agents that are automating increasingly complex work on behalf of users, according to new research from Gartner.
The Stamford, Conn.-based consultancy estimates that up to $234 billion in enterprise application software spending could be disrupted by what it calls “agentic arbitrage” by 2030, representing roughly 20 percent of enterprise SaaS spending.
Gartner defines agentic arbitrage as AI agents completing work across multiple enterprise applications, reducing the need for employees to interact directly with traditional software interfaces.
The report says enterprise buyers are focusing on technology that can affect business outcomes rather than adding more software features or dashboards. As organizations deploy AI agents that can orchestrate work across systems, vendors may need to shift from selling user licenses to delivering measurable outcomes.
“Agentic AI changes the economics of software,” states George Brocklehurst, managing vice president at Gartner. “Agentic systems deliver outcomes directly, bypassing traditional UX-heavy applications and making the software invisible. This breaks the link between user growth and revenue growth for many enterprise software vendors.”
Gartner said incumbent software vendors will need to embed agentic capabilities into their products while preserving customer-specific knowledge. At the same time, the firm sees opportunities for AI-native companies and service providers that build platforms capable of orchestrating work across enterprise applications.
